Live Better Now

The Thinker

Sydney Finkelstein
Steven Roth Professor of Management

The Research

For his best-selling book Superbosses, Finkelstein spent 10 years interviewing visionary leaders who helped create some of the most talented people in their industries.

The Theory

The best bosses are more than bosses, they are mentors and talent cultivators.

How to Think
Critically

By Andrew King

Professor of Business Administration

Celebrated physicist Richard Feynman said that “science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.” What he meant by that, I believe, is that all of us should think critically and scientifically about the evidence and ideas we hear.  But how do we do that? Doesn’t it take years of training to be able to evaluate an expert’s ideas? In some areas of understanding, that is surely so, but within many “empirical” subjects, independent evaluation is within our grasp. I believe we can and should evaluate the evidence for proposed new diets, exercise programs, investment opportunities, business strategies, public policies, and even the medical advice we are given.

So how do we think critically? The first step is to understand the limitations of scientific processes. Most scientists are trained, intelligent, and honest, but they still make many mistakes. Just in the last 10 years, prestigious scientists have argued that: female hurricanes kill more people than male ones; sitting near a window makes you prefer salad; standing in a “power pose” changes your hormones; and economies falter once the national debt reaches 90 percent of GDP. As of today, our best guess is that none of these claims is true. And yet we also don’t know if they’re false.

Which leads to the second fact we need to understand: our use of evidence to form conclusions is inherently bounded by our need to make assumptions. These assumptions mean that we can never know anything for sure, and when used too heavily, these assumptions can lead us to false conclusions.

And the final point to remember is that human beings are pattern-seeking, storytelling animals. We want to find order in the world around us, and so we are likely to spot canals on Mars and then invent an explanation for the pattern we see: an intelligent civilization built them for irrigation. Richard Feynman captured this tendency in another one of his aphorisms: “the first principle is not to fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.”

Are there some steps we can take to better assess the empirical basis for ideas we hear? Philosophers of science have worked on the problem for centuries. I have been working on teaching materials to bring some of this thinking to Tuck Students. Here are four points I think are important. 

Example: Create Counter-Active Control

The Goal: Keller wanted to stay more hydrated during the day.

The Obstacle: She easily forgot to drink. “I can’t remind myself to drink water; I just can’t be bothered,” she says. She didn’t have control.

The Solution: Relinquish control to the environment. “Every time I have someone come to my office, I ask them if they want a drink, and it cues me to get some water myself.”

EESHA SHARMA’s work exists at the intersection of marketing, behavioral economics, and psychology. She’s curious about why people make certain financial decisions—to go into debt for a purchase, for instance—and how good they are at predicting their own behavior and the feelings that behavior will evoke. This research has obvious implications for marketers and managers: they can know their customers on a deeper level. But it arguably has even more benefit for consumers ourselves, because it provides insights into our oftentimes obtuse spending behavior.

In two recent research papers, Sharma has homed in on some truths about our spending decisions. Here are her findings and how they can help you.

1   You’re more likely to go into debt for experiential purchases than material ones. Other research has shown that experiences might make people happier than buying products, but that doesn’t take affordability into account. If you need to go into debt for a vacation, make sure you can pay off the debt quickly to avoid interest charges, and also to avoid the psychological pain of paying for something when its benefits have long receded into the past.

2   Talking about our purchases reminds us of our financial constraints and tends to decrease our pleasure in these types of conversations. “This is interesting because sometimes we think consumption can compensate for areas in which we feel we’re lacking—give us validation, for example,” Sharma says. “In this case, talking about your spent money does not make you feel better about your financial standing. However, if you focus on the expenditure of time rather than money, these negative feelings are less likely to arise.”