Current Research Topics
- Decision analysis
- Developing methods for studying dynamic decision problems and valuing risky investments
Professional Activities
Academic positions
- Tuck School of Business, 2018–present
- J.B. Fuqua Professor, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, 2009–18
- Professor, Fuqua School of Business, 2004–18
- Visiting Professor, Tuck School of Business, 2013, 2017
- William and Sue Gross Distinguished Research Scholar, Fuqua School of Business, 2006–08
- Associate Dean for Daytime MBA Program, Fuqua School of Business, 2000–03
- Visiting Scholar, Stanford University, 1998–99
- Associate Professor with tenure, Fuqua School of Business, 1997–2004
- Associate Professor without tenure, Fuqua School of Business, 1994–97
- Assistant Professor, Fuqua School of Business, 1990–94
Board positions
- INFORMS Decision Analysis Society, President 2008–10; Vice-President, 2008–10; Council member and secretary, 1993–2006
- National Science Foundation, Advisory Panel for Decision, Risk and Management Science Program, 2003–05
- National Research Council, various committees related to evaluating R&D at the Department of Energy, 2004–06
Editorial positions
- Decision Analysis, 2001–present
- Management Science, Decision Analysis Department Editor, 1999–2004, 2013–14; Associate Editor, 1996–99, 2014–present
- Operations Research, Area Editor for Decision Analysis, 2018–present, Associate Editor, 2012–18
Awards
- Winner, INFORMS Decision Analysis Publication Award for best publication in decision analysis for “Bandits, Clairvoyants and Wildcats” paper with David Brown, 2015
- Winner, INFORMS Frank P. Ramsey Medal for distinguished contributions to Decision Analysis, 2008
- INFORMS Fellow, 2007
- Recipient, Bank of America Faculty Award, given annually to a Fuqua faculty member for outstanding research, teaching, and service, 2004
- Winner, INFORMS Decision Analysis Publication Award for best publication in decision analysis for “Evaluating Income Streams” paper, 2000
- Winner, INFORMS Decision Analysis Publication Award for best publication in decision analysis for “Valuing Risky Projects” paper with Robert Nau, 1997
- Winner, INFORMS Decision Analysis Publication Award for best publication in decision analysis for “Moment Methods” paper, 1995
Selected Publications
- With C. Ulu, “Uncertainty, Risk Aversion, and Technology Adoption,” Operations Research, 2016
- With D. Brown, “Information Relaxations, Duality, and Convex Stochastic Dynamic Programs,” Operations Research, 62(6), 2014
- With D. Brown, “Optimal Sequential Exploration: Bandits, Clairvoyants, and Wildcats,” Operations Research, 61(3), 2013
- With C. Ulu, “Technology Adoption with Uncertain Future Costs and Quality,” Operations Research, 67(2), 2012
- With D. Brown, “Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs: Heuristics and Dual Bounds,” Management Science, 57(10), 2011
- With D. Brown and P. Sun, “Information Relaxations and Duality in Stochastic Dynamic Programs,” Operations Research, 58(4), 2010
- With R. Clemen, “On the Choice of Baselines in Multi-Attribute Portfolio Analysis: A Cautionary Note,” Decision Analysis, 6(4), 2009
- With C. Ulu, “Uncertainty, Information Acquisition, and Technology Adoption,” Operations Research, 57(3), 2009
- With J.E. Bickel and J. Meyer, “Modeling Dependence among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions,” SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering, 3(4), 2008
- M. Savitz et al., Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Applied Research and Development at DOE (Phase Two), National Research Council, National Academies Press, 2007
- With J.E. Bickel, “Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model,” Decision Analysis, 3(1), 2006
- With R. Winkler, “The Optimizer’s Curse: Skepticism and Post-Decision Surprise in Decision Analysis,” Management Science, 52(3), 2006
- “Alternative Approaches for Solving Real Options Problems,” Decision Analysis, 2, 2005
- With R. Keeney, “Your Money or Your Life: A Prescriptive Model for Health, Safety and Consumption Decisions,” Management Science, 51, 2005
- R. Fri et al., Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward, National Research Council, National Academies Press, 2005
- With R. Winkler, “On Uncertainty in Medical Testing,” Medical Decision Making, 24, 2004
- “Risk Sharing, Fiduciary Duty, and Corporate Risk Attitudes,” Decision Analysis, 1, 2004
- “Comments on Howard’s Precise Decision Language,” Decision Analysis, 1, 2004
- With D. von Winterfeldt, “Decision Analysis in Management Science,” Management Science, 50, 2004
- With R. Winkler and D. Fryback, “The Role of Informative Priors in Zero‐Numerator Problems: Being Conservative Versus Being Candid,” The American Statistician, 56, 2002
- With K. McCardle, “Structural Properties of Stochastic Dynamic Programs,” Operations Research, 50, 2002
- With E. Schwartz, “Short‐Term Variations and Long‐Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices,” Management Science, 46, 2000
- With R. Winkler and D. Fryback, “The First Positive: Positive Predictive Values in the Extreme,” Annals of Internal Medicine, 132, 2000